Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 12,103,014 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

937 draws · 31.10.2017 – 20.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 5-from-70 draws

How close together are the five numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 70 on a circle where 70 touches 1: the draw 4, 5, 7, 68, 70 is then no longer spread over 67 positions but concentrated on 10. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 48.4, expected 48.3

Observed Expected
5–9 1 / 0.3
10–14 3 / 2.9
15–19 8 / 9.7
20–24 29 / 21.8
25–29 28 / 39.4
30–34 62 / 61.4
35–39 87 / 86.1
40–44 110 / 110.8
45–49 131 / 131.5
50–54 141 / 143.6
55–59 156 / 141.3
60–64 119 / 118.1
65–69 57 / 66.1
70–70 5 / 3.9

Circular span

Mean: observed 39.9, expected 39.7

Observed Expected
5–9 2 / 0.4
10–14 4 / 3.5
15–19 9 / 12.7
20–24 38 / 31.4
25–29 49 / 63.0
30–34 110 / 110.8
35–39 175 / 177.9
40–44 242 / 243.4
45–49 238 / 221.4
50–54 70 / 71.5
55–57 0 / 1.1

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 10 has a probability of 0.07% for a random draw. We therefore expected 0.7 such draws; there were 2.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
18.03.2025272831323377
12.06.2018135870970
10.01.20237131415181212
01.11.2022591516171313
24.05.202235663681466
17.12.202456666768691414
04.05.2018451012181515
03.12.202452606166671616
07.11.20171546068691869
28.07.202017202731341818
12.11.202130324246481919
04.01.2022461621221919

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its five numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 5 drawn from 70, of which 5 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.364, expected 0.357

Observed Expected
0 628 / 638.8
1 276 / 261.8
2 31 / 33.8
3 1 / 1.6
4–5 0 / 0.0

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

0.643
Observed
0.654
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 70 numbers in rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

937 draws · Expected: 66.9 / Number · min 53, max 87

1642663794685596667648749581087
1175126113671477157216681784187319702073
2162227423552472256526722768286229693072
3181326133703465355736573765387739644073
4160427943774466455346734759487249585056
5153526753645459556156685766587659716058
6166626963646473655366756753686369627065

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 7.1 / Number · min 2, max 12

172736475965768496107
1191261311142158168178186197206
21822723424525826102772822923012
316326335341035636103773883974010
4184210431144545346547948114910508
51105275375445595685775885911606
61562763126456556696746810695706

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 70 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 5/70 ≈ 7.1% per draw: mean 14.0, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

4615 gaps measured · Mean: observed 13.83, expected 14.00

Observed Expected
1 341 / 329.6
2 300 / 306.1
3–4 529 / 548.2
5–7 677 / 684.0
8–10 583 / 547.6
11–15 679 / 681.1
16–20 454 / 470.2
21–30 597 / 548.7
31–40 229 / 261.5
41+ 226 / 238.1

The longest absence in the data is 96 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.09%; with 70 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 54 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter five numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 12,103,014 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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