Mega Millions: the delta system recalculated

The delta system records the gaps instead of the numbers: the lowest number, then the gap to the next. 3 · 8 · 9 · 21 · 30 becomes 3 · 5 · 1 · 12 · 9. The idea: small deltas are more frequent, so you build your lines with small deltas.

Delta frequency

Share of each delta value across the 937 draws (all positions) against the exact probability. For a random draw, P(delta = g) = C(N−g, K−1) / C(N, K): small gaps are more frequent simply because more combinations contain them.

ObservedExpected
Δ 17.1 % / 7.1 %
Δ 26.5 % / 6.7 %
Δ 36.9 % / 6.3 %
Δ 45.4 % / 6.0 %
Δ 55.5 % / 5.6 %
Δ 65.6 % / 5.2 %
Δ 74.6 % / 4.9 %
Δ 84.7 % / 4.6 %
Δ 94.6 % / 4.3 %
Δ 104.4 % / 4.0 %
Δ 113.8 % / 3.8 %
Δ 123.5 % / 3.5 %
Δ 133.2 % / 3.3 %
Δ 142.9 % / 3.0 %
Δ 153.1 % / 2.8 %
Δ 162.6 % / 2.6 %
Δ 172.7 % / 2.4 %
Δ 182.1 % / 2.2 %
Δ 191.6 % / 2.1 %
Δ 202.3 % / 1.9 %
Δ 211.5 % / 1.8 %
Δ 222.2 % / 1.6 %
Δ 231.5 % / 1.5 %
Δ 241.3 % / 1.3 %
Δ 251.1 % / 1.2 %
Δ 261.2 % / 1.1 %
Δ 271.0 % / 1.0 %
Δ 280.7 % / 0.9 %
Δ 290.9 % / 0.8 %
Δ 300.8 % / 0.8 %
Δ 310.7 % / 0.7 %
Δ 320.4 % / 0.6 %
Δ 330.7 % / 0.5 %
Δ 340.7 % / 0.5 %
Δ 350.3 % / 0.4 %
Δ 360.3 % / 0.4 %
Δ 370.3 % / 0.3 %
Δ 380.2 % / 0.3 %
Δ 390.3 % / 0.3 %
Δ 400.3 % / 0.2 %
Δ 410.2 % / 0.2 %
Δ 420.1 % / 0.2 %
Δ 430.1 % / 0.1 %
Δ 440.2 % / 0.1 %
Δ 450.0 % / 0.1 %
Δ 460.1 % / 0.1 %
Δ 470.1 % / 0.1 %
Δ 480.1 % / 0.1 %
Δ 490.0 % / 0.0 %
Δ 510.0 % / 0.0 %
Δ 520.0 % / 0.0 %
Δ 530.0 % / 0.0 %
Δ 560.0 % / 0.0 %
Δ 570.0 % / 0.0 %
Δ 620.0 % / 0.0 %

80% of deltas are between 1 and 19. Average delta: observed 11.84, expected 11.83.

Deltas of the latest draws

DateWinning numbersΔ
20.10.202613 28 33 35 4813 · 15 · 5 · 2 · 13
16.10.20262 15 31 41 682 · 13 · 16 · 10 · 27
13.10.202611 12 15 40 6611 · 1 · 3 · 25 · 26
09.10.20262 7 16 63 702 · 5 · 9 · 47 · 7
06.10.202626 32 42 51 5426 · 6 · 10 · 9 · 3
02.10.20266 37 40 41 556 · 31 · 3 · 1 · 14
29.09.202610 15 16 27 6410 · 5 · 1 · 11 · 37
25.09.202625 57 58 67 6825 · 32 · 1 · 9 · 1
22.09.20267 13 26 37 687 · 6 · 13 · 11 · 31
18.09.20264 9 24 56 684 · 5 · 15 · 32 · 12
15.09.202627 36 43 57 5827 · 9 · 7 · 14 · 1
11.09.20263 30 33 53 623 · 27 · 3 · 20 · 9

Delta generator

Generates lines whose deltas follow the observed distribution (so frequent deltas appear more often). Option: maximum delta.

    Conclusion: the delta distribution of real draws matches chance exactly. A line with “typical” deltas is therefore no more likely than any other – the system merely rules out combinations (e.g. very spread out ones) that come up just as often as the rest.

    How it works

    The winning numbers are sorted; the deltas are the gaps between neighbouring numbers (the first number counts as the first delta). The page shows which deltas occurred how often and generates lines from typical deltas.

    Example

    3 – 11 – 17 – 30 – 44 gives the deltas 3, 8, 6, 13, 14.

    Limitations

    Small deltas are more common because mathematically there are more combinations with small gaps – not because they are "better". The odds of winning stay the same.

    Frequently asked questions about this tool

    Is the delta system a winning strategy?
    No. It only describes the shape of drawn combinations; every combination remains equally likely.
    ▲