Odds of winning Mega Millions: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
Mega Millions prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 matches + Mega Ball | 1 in 290,472,336 | 0.000000 % |
| 2 | 5 matches | 1 in 12,629,232 | 0.000008 % |
| 3 | 4 matches + Mega Ball | 1 in 893,761 | 0.000112 % |
| 4 | 4 matches | 1 in 38,859 | 0.002573 % |
| 5 | 3 matches + Mega Ball | 1 in 13,965 | 0.007161 % |
| 6 | 3 matches | 1 in 607 | 0.164697 % |
| 7 | 2 matches + Mega Ball | 1 in 665 | 0.150376 % |
| 8 | 1 match + Mega Ball | 1 in 86 | 1.165412 % |
| 9 | 0 match + Mega Ball | 1 in 35 | 2.843606 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 23.1 | 4.33 % |
Probability per play under the current rules (since 8 April 2025), calculated exactly. Apart from the jackpot, prizes are fixed base amounts multiplied by the random multiplier included with every play (2x to 10x).
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 290,472,336 | 4.3 % |
| 2 | 1 in 145,236,168 | 8.5 % |
| 5 | 1 in 58,094,467 | 19.9 % |
| 10 | 1 in 29,047,234 | 35.8 % |
| 20 | 1 in 14,523,617 | 58.8 % |
| 50 | 1 in 5,809,447 | 89.1 % |
| 100 | 1 in 2,904,723 | 98.8 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 290,472,336 | 2,793,003.2 |
| 2 | 12,629,232 | 121,434.9 |
| 3 | 893,761 | 8,593.9 |
| 4 | 38,859 | 373.6 |
| 5 | 13,965 | 134.3 |
| 6 | 607 | 5.8 |
| 7 | 665 | 6.4 |
| 8 | 86 | 0.8 |
| 9 | 35 | 0.3 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 290,472,336 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 28 times in a row when tossing a coin.