Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 1,533,939 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

693 draws · 27.02.2020 – 15.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 5-from-47 draws

How close together are the five numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 47 on a circle where 47 touches 1: the draw 4, 5, 7, 45, 47 is then no longer spread over 44 positions but concentrated on 10. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 32.9, expected 33.0

Observed Expected
5–9 1 / 1.3
10–14 6 / 10.3
15–19 30 / 32.4
20–24 66 / 67.3
25–29 116 / 108.9
30–34 164 / 145.9
35–39 159 / 160.9
40–44 119 / 131.0
45–47 32 / 35.1

Circular span

Mean: observed 27.2, expected 27.2

Observed Expected
5–9 1 / 1.5
10–14 9 / 13.7
15–19 47 / 49.8
20–24 130 / 123.0
25–29 244 / 237.8
30–34 238 / 238.8
35–38 24 / 28.4

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 10 has a probability of 0.39% for a random draw. We therefore expected 2.7 such draws; there were 1.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
12.01.2023232425303199
20.06.2022134044471147
30.01.202315161922251111
15.10.20205101213161212
24.03.202234363841461313
30.11.20235404243461342
07.10.202417182223291313
30.10.20236121318191414
07.12.2023233739451444
15.06.2026781417201414
13.08.202033353745471515
13.02.202346917181515

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its five numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 5 drawn from 47, of which 5 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.496, expected 0.532

Observed Expected
0 397 / 383.8
1 248 / 252.5
2 46 / 51.8
3 1 / 3.9
4–5 0 / 0.1

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

0.900
Observed
0.926
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 47 numbers in rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

693 draws · Expected: 73.7 / Number · min 59, max 91

1632653914785716777748819681073
1187126813791470157716671774187219812064
2188226823752473256226862772285929803069
3175327833713483357636773770388339754075
4166427943764472456946624766

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 10.6 / Number · min 4, max 17

11728384155116117108139101010
11111271316141215111612171118519132011
2182210231224132542615271328929103014
3111321433103411359361237938113911406
419421043124444514468479

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 47 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 5/47 ≈ 10.6% per draw: mean 9.4, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

3418 gaps measured · Mean: observed 9.28, expected 9.40

Observed Expected
1 343 / 363.6
2 307 / 324.9
3–4 564 / 549.8
5–7 666 / 624.2
8–10 454 / 445.5
11–15 461 / 477.4
16–20 280 / 272.1
21–30 238 / 243.4
31–40 71 / 79.0
41+ 34 / 38.0

The longest absence in the data is 79 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.02%; with 47 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 35 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter five numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 1,533,939 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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