Odds of winning Set For Life: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
Set For Life prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 matches + Life Ball | 1 in 15,339,390 | 0.000007 % |
| 2 | 5 matches | 1 in 1,704,377 | 0.000059 % |
| 3 | 4 matches + Life Ball | 1 in 73,045 | 0.001369 % |
| 4 | 4 matches | 1 in 8,116 | 0.012321 % |
| 5 | 3 matches + Life Ball | 1 in 1,782 | 0.056130 % |
| 6 | 3 matches | 1 in 198 | 0.505170 % |
| 7 | 2 matches + Life Ball | 1 in 134 | 0.748400 % |
| 8 | 2 matches | 1 in 15 | 6.735600 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 12.4 | 8.06 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 15,339,390 | 8.1 % |
| 2 | 1 in 7,669,695 | 15.5 % |
| 5 | 1 in 3,067,878 | 34.3 % |
| 10 | 1 in 1,533,939 | 56.8 % |
| 20 | 1 in 766,970 | 81.4 % |
| 50 | 1 in 306,788 | 98.5 % |
| 100 | 1 in 153,394 | 100.0 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15,339,390 | 147,494.1 |
| 2 | 1,704,377 | 16,388.2 |
| 3 | 73,045 | 702.4 |
| 4 | 8,116 | 78.0 |
| 5 | 1,782 | 17.1 |
| 6 | 198 | 1.9 |
| 7 | 134 | 1.3 |
| 8 | 15 | 0.1 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 15,339,390 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 24 times in a row when tossing a coin.