Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 3,478,761 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

3180 draws · 07.02.2018 – 22.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 5-from-55 draws

How close together are the five numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 55 on a circle where 55 touches 1: the draw 4, 5, 7, 53, 55 is then no longer spread over 52 positions but concentrated on 10. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 38.4, expected 38.3

Observed Expected
5–9 5 / 3.1
10–14 32 / 25.6
15–19 75 / 82.7
20–24 205 / 178.5
25–29 291 / 305.4
30–34 411 / 444.7
35–39 569 / 566.0
40–44 614 / 627.7
45–49 620 / 576.7
50–54 333 / 348.3
55–55 25 / 21.4

Circular span

Mean: observed 31.6, expected 31.5

Observed Expected
5–9 5 / 3.5
10–14 36 / 32.4
15–19 111 / 117.9
20–24 312 / 291.4
25–29 569 / 584.2
30–34 906 / 978.1
35–39 1017 / 969.6
40–44 224 / 202.9
45–45 0 / 0.0

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 10 has a probability of 0.20% for a random draw. We therefore expected 6.3 such draws; there were 8.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
09.02.2021252628293066
27.07.2022689121388
16.02.2018404144464899
16.04.2019474850545599
26.08.2022343637394299
05.01.202024551541053
07.03.202022252930311010
30.11.202025273132341010
21.03.202127283336371111
03.04.202115212324251111
07.06.202311121719211111
01.01.202436910131111

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its five numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 5 drawn from 55, of which 5 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.447, expected 0.455

Observed Expected
0 1959 / 1,936.2
1 1035 / 1,052.3
2 171 / 179.1
3 12 / 11.2
4–5 2 / 0.2

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

0.822
Observed
0.812
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 55 numbers in rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

3180 draws · Expected: 289.1 / Number · min 261, max 330

12982314329842615264631372798276933010299
11273122741327814296152931631017291182821930920312
21274222752328124277252842628527288282742929930313
31288322833328534284352823627437285382643928740297
41295422994330544283452824629247274482784927850301
5129652306532955430655281

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 9.1 / Number · min 4, max 16

1122113941156612711812910109
1110129137148154167179185199209
2162216231024825122692762872911308
3183283373493583683793873915407
4112426431244745164694764884995013
51115255385410559

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 55 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 5/55 ≈ 9.1% per draw: mean 11.0, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

15845 gaps measured · Mean: observed 10.97, expected 11.00

Observed Expected
1 1421 / 1,440.5
2 1330 / 1,309.5
3–4 2263 / 2,272.7
5–7 2746 / 2,691.4
8–10 2030 / 2,022.1
11–15 2261 / 2,315.8
16–20 1423 / 1,437.9
21–30 1474 / 1,447.2
31–40 554 / 558.0
41+ 343 / 350.1

The longest absence in the data is 117 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.00%; with 55 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 52 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter five numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 3,478,761 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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