Odds of winning MillionDAY: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
MillionDAY prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 matches | 1 in 3,478,761 | 0.000029 % |
| 2 | 4 matches | 1 in 13,915 | 0.007186 % |
| 3 | 3 matches | 1 in 284 | 0.352137 % |
| 4 | 2 matches | 1 in 18 | 5.634190 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 16.7 | 5.99 % |
Probability per play, calculated exactly. MillionDAY pays fixed amounts: 5 matches €1,000,000, 4 matches €1,000, 3 matches €50, 2 matches €2.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 3,478,761 | 6.0 % |
| 2 | 1 in 1,739,380 | 11.6 % |
| 5 | 1 in 695,752 | 26.6 % |
| 10 | 1 in 347,876 | 46.1 % |
| 20 | 1 in 173,938 | 70.9 % |
| 50 | 1 in 69,575 | 95.5 % |
| 100 | 1 in 34,788 | 99.8 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (364 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3,478,761 | 9,557.0 |
| 2 | 13,915 | 38.2 |
| 3 | 284 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 18 | 0.0 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 3,478,761 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 22 times in a row when tossing a coin.