Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 8,145,060 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

1571 draws · 01.10.2011 – 17.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-45 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 45 on a circle where 45 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 42, 44, 45 is then no longer spread over 44 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 33.8, expected 33.9

Observed Expected
6–10 2 / 0.9
11–15 13 / 11.7
16–20 56 / 51.0
21–25 139 / 134.6
26–30 264 / 260.0
31–35 375 / 391.7
36–40 426 / 445.8
41–45 296 / 275.4

Circular span

Mean: observed 28.1, expected 28.4

Observed Expected
6–10 2 / 1.1
11–15 17 / 16.3
16–20 102 / 83.5
21–25 281 / 268.0
26–30 593 / 618.4
31–35 552 / 563.5
36–38 24 / 20.2

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.26% for a random draw. We therefore expected 4.0 such draws; there were 3.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
03.01.20183334363841421010
19.09.20201013141617191010
10.10.20151318192022231111
24.05.20172124272930331313
16.05.20201214161821241313
09.06.20121014171920231414
09.02.20132429323336371414
31.05.201447394142451442
28.02.20152226283132351414
21.02.2018133394043451445
06.03.20192930344041421414
01.02.2025335374142441442

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 45, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.799, expected 0.800

Observed Expected
0 625 / 628.9
1 679 / 665.9
2 227 / 237.8
3 35 / 35.2
4–6 4 / 2.2

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.342
Observed
1.337
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 45 numbers in five rows of nine. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

1571 draws · Expected: 209.5 / Number · min 173, max 243

120921943226421651896192719682099207
102171120312211131971421115206162431721218221
192322022521212221952318724216252192620827211
282272922330179311773219533208341953522536223
371733822939204402124121542214432314423045202

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 13.3 / Number · min 6, max 23

1721031841951861076811916
10211111121513131415151516151715186
19112020211422122315241725192617279
2810292330153193218336341035113613
3783811391540144112428431344154514

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 45 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/45 ≈ 13.3% per draw: mean 7.5, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

9381 gaps measured · Mean: observed 7.47, expected 7.50

Observed Expected
1 1254 / 1,250.8
2 1061 / 1,084.0
3–4 1849 / 1,753.7
5–7 1811 / 1,847.3
8–10 1145 / 1,202.5
11–15 1162 / 1,146.1
16–20 560 / 560.4
21–30 418 / 408.0
31–40 91 / 97.5
41+ 30 / 30.6

The longest absence in the data is 69 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.01%; with 45 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 27 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 8,145,060 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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