Lottochaos ☆Le mie giocate

Analisi: osservato contro atteso

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 8,145,060 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

1572 estrazioni · 01/10/2011 – 21/10/2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-45 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 45 on a circle where 45 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 42, 44, 45 is then no longer spread over 44 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Ampiezza lineare

Media: osservato 33,8, atteso 33,9

Osservato Atteso
6–10 2 / 0,9
11–15 13 / 11,7
16–20 56 / 51,0
21–25 139 / 134,7
26–30 265 / 260,1
31–35 375 / 391,9
36–40 426 / 446,1
41–45 296 / 275,6

Ampiezza circolare

Media: osservato 28,1, atteso 28,4

Osservato Atteso
6–10 2 / 1,1
11–15 17 / 16,3
16–20 102 / 83,6
21–25 281 / 268,2
26–30 594 / 618,8
31–35 552 / 563,8
36–38 24 / 20,3

Le estrazioni più compatte

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0,26% for a random draw. We therefore expected 4,0 such draws; there were 3.

DataNumeri vincenticircolarelineare
03/01/20183334363841421010
19/09/20201013141617191010
10/10/20151318192022231111
24/05/20172124272930331313
16/05/20201214161821241313
09/06/20121014171920231414
09/02/20132429323336371414
31/05/201447394142451442
28/02/20152226283132351414
21/02/2018133394043451445
06/03/20192930344041421414
01/02/2025335374142441442

Cosa si ripete dall'estrazione precedente?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 45, of which 6 are marked.

Ripetizioni esatte

Media: osservato 0,798, atteso 0,800

Osservato Atteso
0 626 / 629,3
1 679 / 666,3
2 227 / 238,0
3 35 / 35,3
4–6 4 / 2,2

Vicini dell'estrazione precedente

Numero medio di numeri vincenti che sono vicini diretti (±1, in modo circolare) di un numero dell'estrazione precedente, senza esservi stati estratti.

1,342
Osservato
1,337
Atteso

L'ultima estrazione non contiene alcuna informazione sulla successiva. Rigiocare gli ultimi numeri o i loro vicini dà esattamente le stesse probabilità di qualsiasi altra combinazione.

La schedina come mappa di calore

The 45 numbers in five rows of nine. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

Da sempre

1572 estrazioni · Atteso: 209,6 / Numero · min 173, max 243

120921943226421651896192719682099207
102171120312211131971421215206162431721218221
192322022521212221952318724216252202620827211
282272922330179311783219533208341953522636224
371733822939204402124121642214432314423045202

Ultime 100 estrazioni

100 estrazioni · Atteso: 13,3 / Numero · min 6, max 23

1721031841951861076811916
10211111121513131416151416141715186
19112020211322122315241725202617278
28102923301531103218336341035123613
3783811391540134113428431344154514

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 45 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

Quanto resta assente un numero?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/45 ≈ 13.3% per draw: mean 7.5, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

9387 intervalli misurati · Media: osservato 7,47, atteso 7,50

Osservato Atteso
1 1254 / 1.251,6
2 1061 / 1.084,7
3–4 1850 / 1.754,8
5–7 1811 / 1.848,4
8–10 1146 / 1.203,3
11–15 1164 / 1.146,9
16–20 562 / 560,8
21–30 418 / 408,2
31–40 91 / 97,6
41+ 30 / 30,7

The longest absence in the data is 69 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0,01%; with 45 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 28 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

La mia combinazione

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 8,145,060 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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