Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 25,827,165 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

2410 draws · 26.04.2006 – 24.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-54 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 54 on a circle where 54 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 51, 53, 54 is then no longer spread over 53 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 40.0, expected 40.3

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.5
11–15 6 / 7.2
16–20 37 / 32.8
21–25 93 / 91.0
26–30 208 / 189.8
31–35 329 / 323.4
36–40 489 / 465.5
41–45 540 / 561.8
46–50 493 / 522.5
51–54 215 / 215.5

Circular span

Mean: observed 33.8, expected 33.7

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.6
11–15 6 / 9.5
16–20 47 / 48.5
21–25 152 / 155.6
26–30 388 / 384.2
31–35 778 / 765.9
36–40 875 / 875.4
41–45 164 / 170.4
46–46 0 / 0.0

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.10% for a random draw. We therefore expected 2.3 such draws; there were 2.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
22.01.2024267910131212
25.03.202623101112131212
15.03.20082325263132351313
03.03.20072526333637381414
03.05.20081719212429301414
09.06.20181014171821241515
22.01.20113236384445471616
10.12.201145141618191616
06.11.20134574649531650
16.08.20171114151819261616
12.05.20252628323639411616
18.10.20253539414446501616

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 54, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.675, expected 0.667

Observed Expected
0 1137 / 1,144.6
1 954 / 958.3
2 282 / 272.2
3 36 / 32.3
4–6 0 / 1.6

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.139
Observed
1.154
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 54 numbers in six rows of nine. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

2410 draws · Expected: 267.8 / Number · min 228, max 302

125122503254428852696268727183009262
102711123912284132661428315291162711728918268
192922025321287222622325624269252712629527286
282602927530248313023225933243342723528136260
372723829139276402564127042266432674428145228
462394725148236492925024151259522745324554270

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 11.1 / Number · min 4, max 18

192831248586127881095
109111212181313141415816141714186
1911201021102262314245251626112716
28929133015311532183312341135103611
3793883916401341184294316449458
46947114884914501351145245395411

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 54 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/54 ≈ 11.1% per draw: mean 9.0, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

14406 gaps measured · Mean: observed 8.97, expected 9.00

Observed Expected
1 1626 / 1,600.7
2 1385 / 1,422.8
3–4 2382 / 2,388.9
5–7 2685 / 2,677.1
8–10 1908 / 1,880.2
11–15 1966 / 1,974.5
16–20 1102 / 1,095.7
21–30 938 / 945.4
31–40 297 / 291.1
41+ 117 / 129.6

The longest absence in the data is 100 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.00%; with 54 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 32 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 25,827,165 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

▲