Odds of winning Lotto 6 aus 45: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
Lotto 6 aus 45 prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 matches | 1 in 8,145,060 | 0.000012 % |
| 2 | 5 matches + Bonus number | 1 in 1,357,510 | 0.000074 % |
| 3 | 5 matches | 1 in 35,724 | 0.002799 % |
| 4 | 4 matches + Bonus number | 1 in 14,290 | 0.006998 % |
| 5 | 4 matches | 1 in 772 | 0.129465 % |
| 6 | 3 matches + Bonus number | 1 in 579 | 0.172620 % |
| 7 | 3 matches | 1 in 48 | 2.071440 % |
| 8 | 0–1–2 matches + Bonus number | 1 in 8 | 13.153642 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 6.4 | 15.54 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 8,145,060 | 15.5 % |
| 2 | 1 in 4,072,530 | 28.7 % |
| 5 | 1 in 1,629,012 | 57.0 % |
| 10 | 1 in 814,506 | 81.5 % |
| 20 | 1 in 407,253 | 96.6 % |
| 50 | 1 in 162,901 | 100.0 % |
| 100 | 1 in 81,451 | 100.0 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8,145,060 | 78,317.9 |
| 2 | 1,357,510 | 13,053.0 |
| 3 | 35,724 | 343.5 |
| 4 | 14,290 | 137.4 |
| 5 | 772 | 7.4 |
| 6 | 579 | 5.6 |
| 7 | 48 | 0.5 |
| 8 | 8 | 0.1 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 8,145,060 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 23 times in a row when tossing a coin.