Odds of winning UK Lotto: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
UK Lotto prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 matches | 1 in 45,057,474 | 0.000002 % |
| 2 | 5 matches + Bonus ball | 1 in 7,509,579 | 0.000013 % |
| 3 | 5 matches | 1 in 144,415 | 0.000692 % |
| 4 | 4 matches | 1 in 2,180 | 0.045875 % |
| 5 | 3 matches | 1 in 96 | 1.039827 % |
| 6 | 2 matches | 1 in 10 | 9.748383 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 9.2 | 10.83 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 45,057,474 | 10.8 % |
| 2 | 1 in 22,528,737 | 20.5 % |
| 5 | 1 in 9,011,495 | 43.6 % |
| 10 | 1 in 4,505,747 | 68.2 % |
| 20 | 1 in 2,252,874 | 89.9 % |
| 50 | 1 in 901,149 | 99.7 % |
| 100 | 1 in 450,575 | 100.0 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45,057,474 | 433,244.9 |
| 2 | 7,509,579 | 72,207.5 |
| 3 | 144,415 | 1,388.6 |
| 4 | 2,180 | 21.0 |
| 5 | 96 | 0.9 |
| 6 | 10 | 0.1 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 45,057,474 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 25 times in a row when tossing a coin.