Odds of winning Thunderball: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
Thunderball prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 matches + Thunderball | 1 in 8,060,598 | 0.000012 % |
| 2 | 5 matches | 1 in 620,046 | 0.000161 % |
| 3 | 4 matches + Thunderball | 1 in 47,415 | 0.002109 % |
| 4 | 4 matches | 1 in 3,647 | 0.027417 % |
| 5 | 3 matches + Thunderball | 1 in 1,437 | 0.069598 % |
| 6 | 3 matches | 1 in 111 | 0.904772 % |
| 7 | 2 matches + Thunderball | 1 in 135 | 0.742377 % |
| 8 | 1 match + Thunderball | 1 in 35 | 2.876710 % |
| 9 | 0 match + Thunderball | 1 in 29 | 3.452052 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 12.4 | 8.08 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 8,060,598 | 8.1 % |
| 2 | 1 in 4,030,299 | 15.5 % |
| 5 | 1 in 1,612,120 | 34.4 % |
| 10 | 1 in 806,060 | 56.9 % |
| 20 | 1 in 403,030 | 81.4 % |
| 50 | 1 in 161,212 | 98.5 % |
| 100 | 1 in 80,606 | 100.0 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (208 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8,060,598 | 38,752.9 |
| 2 | 620,046 | 2,981.0 |
| 3 | 47,415 | 228.0 |
| 4 | 3,647 | 17.5 |
| 5 | 1,437 | 6.9 |
| 6 | 111 | 0.5 |
| 7 | 135 | 0.6 |
| 8 | 35 | 0.2 |
| 9 | 29 | 0.1 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 8,060,598 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 23 times in a row when tossing a coin.