Odds of winning Swiss Lotto: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
Swiss Lotto prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 matches + Lucky Number | 1 in 31,474,716 | 0.000003 % |
| 2 | 6 matches | 1 in 6,294,943 | 0.000016 % |
| 3 | 5 matches + Lucky Number | 1 in 145,716 | 0.000686 % |
| 4 | 5 matches | 1 in 29,143 | 0.003431 % |
| 5 | 4 matches + Lucky Number | 1 in 3,331 | 0.030024 % |
| 6 | 4 matches | 1 in 666 | 0.150120 % |
| 7 | 3 matches + Lucky Number | 1 in 220 | 0.453698 % |
| 8 | 3 matches | 1 in 44 | 2.268488 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 34.4 | 2.91 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 31,474,716 | 2.9 % |
| 2 | 1 in 15,737,358 | 5.7 % |
| 5 | 1 in 6,294,943 | 13.7 % |
| 10 | 1 in 3,147,472 | 25.5 % |
| 20 | 1 in 1,573,736 | 44.6 % |
| 50 | 1 in 629,494 | 77.1 % |
| 100 | 1 in 314,747 | 94.8 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31,474,716 | 302,641.5 |
| 2 | 6,294,943 | 60,528.3 |
| 3 | 145,716 | 1,401.1 |
| 4 | 29,143 | 280.2 |
| 5 | 3,331 | 32.0 |
| 6 | 666 | 6.4 |
| 7 | 220 | 2.1 |
| 8 | 44 | 0.4 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 31,474,716 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 25 times in a row when tossing a coin.