Odds of winning SuperEnalotto: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
SuperEnalotto prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 matches | 1 in 622,614,630 | 0.000000 % |
| 2 | 5 matches + Jolly | 1 in 103,769,105 | 0.000001 % |
| 3 | 5 matches | 1 in 1,250,230 | 0.000080 % |
| 4 | 4 matches | 1 in 11,907 | 0.008398 % |
| 5 | 3 matches | 1 in 327 | 0.306077 % |
| 6 | 2 matches | 1 in 22 | 4.648544 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 20.1 | 4.96 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 622,614,630 | 5.0 % |
| 2 | 1 in 311,307,315 | 9.7 % |
| 5 | 1 in 124,522,926 | 22.5 % |
| 10 | 1 in 62,261,463 | 39.9 % |
| 20 | 1 in 31,130,732 | 63.9 % |
| 50 | 1 in 12,452,293 | 92.2 % |
| 100 | 1 in 6,226,146 | 99.4 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (208 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 622,614,630 | 2,993,339.6 |
| 2 | 103,769,105 | 498,889.9 |
| 3 | 1,250,230 | 6,010.7 |
| 4 | 11,907 | 57.2 |
| 5 | 327 | 1.6 |
| 6 | 22 | 0.1 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 622,614,630 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 29 times in a row when tossing a coin.