Odds of winning Millionaire for Life: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
Millionaire for Life prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 matches + Millionaire Ball | 1 in 22,910,580 | 0.000004 % |
| 2 | 5 matches | 1 in 5,727,645 | 0.000017 % |
| 3 | 4 matches + Millionaire Ball | 1 in 86,455 | 0.001157 % |
| 4 | 4 matches | 1 in 21,614 | 0.004627 % |
| 5 | 3 matches + Millionaire Ball | 1 in 1,663 | 0.060147 % |
| 6 | 3 matches | 1 in 416 | 0.240588 % |
| 7 | 2 matches + Millionaire Ball | 1 in 98 | 1.022497 % |
| 8 | 2 matches | 1 in 24 | 4.089988 % |
| 9 | 1 match + Millionaire Ball | 1 in 16 | 6.390606 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 8.5 | 11.81 % |
Probability per play under the game rules, calculated exactly. The top two tiers are lifetime annuities ($1 million or $100,000 a year for life, or $18 million / $2.2 million cash); all other prizes are fixed: 4 + Millionaire Ball $7,500, 4 matches $500, 3 + Ball $250, 3 matches $50, 2 + Ball $25, 2 matches $8, 1 + Ball $8.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 22,910,580 | 11.8 % |
| 2 | 1 in 11,455,290 | 22.2 % |
| 5 | 1 in 4,582,116 | 46.7 % |
| 10 | 1 in 2,291,058 | 71.5 % |
| 20 | 1 in 1,145,529 | 91.9 % |
| 50 | 1 in 458,212 | 99.8 % |
| 100 | 1 in 229,106 | 100.0 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (364 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22,910,580 | 62,941.2 |
| 2 | 5,727,645 | 15,735.3 |
| 3 | 86,455 | 237.5 |
| 4 | 21,614 | 59.4 |
| 5 | 1,663 | 4.6 |
| 6 | 416 | 1.1 |
| 7 | 98 | 0.3 |
| 8 | 24 | 0.1 |
| 9 | 16 | 0.0 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 22,910,580 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 24 times in a row when tossing a coin.