Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 4,582,116 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

246 draws · 22.02.2026 – 25.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 5-from-58 draws

How close together are the five numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 58 on a circle where 58 touches 1: the draw 4, 5, 7, 56, 58 is then no longer spread over 55 positions but concentrated on 10. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 41.1, expected 40.3

Observed Expected
5–9 0 / 0.2
10–14 0 / 1.6
15–19 4 / 5.2
20–24 10 / 11.4
25–29 19 / 19.8
30–34 28 / 29.4
35–39 40 / 38.5
40–44 49 / 44.9
45–49 43 / 45.3
50–54 31 / 36.3
55–58 22 / 13.3

Circular span

Mean: observed 33.5, expected 33.2

Observed Expected
5–9 0 / 0.2
10–14 1 / 2.0
15–19 4 / 7.3
20–24 18 / 18.0
25–29 36 / 36.2
30–34 66 / 62.9
35–39 81 / 79.1
40–44 37 / 39.2
45–47 3 / 1.1

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 10 has a probability of 0.16% for a random draw. We therefore expected 0.4 such draws; there were 0.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
09.10.202612551571357
11.05.202642454648561515
11.10.202635434445491515
05.03.202617202330331717
25.07.202617293033341818
17.03.202634948552053
26.04.202623617562055
11.06.202618192531372020
17.06.202624716212020
08.08.2026251049522051
30.03.202624253234442121
22.03.2026781718552249

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its five numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 5 drawn from 58, of which 5 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.502, expected 0.431

Observed Expected
0 140 / 153.4
1 89 / 78.3
2 14 / 12.5
3 2 / 0.7
4–5 0 / 0.0

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

0.812
Observed
0.762
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 58 numbers in rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

246 draws · Expected: 21.2 / Number · min 13, max 29

1272263284245156227248219161017
1115121713291421152316231726182419212020
2124221623192416252626182720282029223025
3118322433223413352936163720382239134024
4123422443194422452446214717482049175020
51255216532054245528561857255821

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 8.6 / Number · min 3, max 17

172123104956697138896108
11612713121491571611177188195206
21622823102462513267271328102983010
3133283311344351736737838103934014
4112421043744124511469475485498505
5113521053954755756657125810

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 58 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 5/58 ≈ 8.6% per draw: mean 11.6, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

1172 gaps measured · Mean: observed 11.08, expected 11.60

Observed Expected
1 123 / 101.0
2 99 / 92.3
3–4 162 / 161.5
5–7 185 / 193.6
8–10 135 / 147.8
11–15 171 / 172.6
16–20 113 / 110.0
21–30 112 / 114.7
31–40 47 / 46.6
41+ 25 / 31.8

The longest absence in the data is 61 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.45%; with 58 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 40 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter five numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 4,582,116 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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