Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 8,145,060 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

1246 draws · 07.12.2002 – 17.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-45 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 45 on a circle where 45 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 42, 44, 45 is then no longer spread over 44 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 33.7, expected 33.9

Observed Expected
6–10 2 / 0.7
11–15 11 / 9.2
16–20 45 / 40.4
21–25 102 / 106.7
26–30 215 / 206.2
31–35 318 / 310.6
36–40 330 / 353.6
41–45 223 / 218.4

Circular span

Mean: observed 28.4, expected 28.4

Observed Expected
6–10 2 / 0.9
11–15 13 / 12.9
16–20 66 / 66.3
21–25 200 / 212.5
26–30 496 / 490.5
31–35 448 / 446.9
36–38 21 / 16.1

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.26% for a random draw. We therefore expected 3.2 such draws; there were 3.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
28.12.202430313235363788
08.03.20252021222528291010
02.09.20063536374144451111
08.12.201214373840451345
12.11.20226791117181313
17.10.20261622232427281313
12.06.20041718242526301414
04.06.2005810111415211414
16.01.2010811141618211414
23.10.201047394142451442
27.07.20241519212527281414
01.06.20191117192122251515

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 45, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.827, expected 0.800

Observed Expected
0 481 / 498.7
1 527 / 528.0
2 211 / 188.6
3 24 / 27.9
4–6 2 / 1.7

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.311
Observed
1.339
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 45 numbers in seven rows of seven. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

1246 draws · Expected: 166.1 / Number · min 137, max 187

1171215731724164515461667171
815891371016311168121801318414172
15170161711717118180191712017221167
22147231502416925154261662718228159
29156301583117132147331753418735163
36165371743817439168401744115142159
431674416645175

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 13.3 / Number · min 7, max 21

113211316412510613715
8149161010111112121319147
1517161817101815191320132110
2212231424172514261227212817
2913301231163214331034103513
3613371538193915401141114214
43944124511

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 45 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/45 ≈ 13.3% per draw: mean 7.5, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

7431 gaps measured · Mean: observed 7.46, expected 7.50

Observed Expected
1 1029 / 990.8
2 902 / 858.7
3–4 1309 / 1,389.2
5–7 1492 / 1,463.3
8–10 927 / 952.5
11–15 915 / 907.9
16–20 439 / 443.9
21–30 308 / 323.2
31–40 85 / 77.3
41+ 25 / 24.3

The longest absence in the data is 74 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.00%; with 45 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 22 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 8,145,060 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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