Odds of winning Texas Two Step: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
Texas Two Step prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 matches + Bonus ball | 1 in 1,832,600 | 0.000055 % |
| 2 | 4 matches | 1 in 53,900 | 0.001855 % |
| 3 | 3 matches + Bonus ball | 1 in 14,779 | 0.006766 % |
| 4 | 3 matches | 1 in 435 | 0.230056 % |
| 5 | 2 matches + Bonus ball | 1 in 657 | 0.152243 % |
| 6 | 1 match + Bonus ball | 1 in 102 | 0.981120 % |
| 7 | 0 match + Bonus ball | 1 in 58 | 1.716960 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 32.4 | 3.09 % |
Probability per play under the game rules (4 from 35 plus bonus ball 1 from 35, own drum), calculated exactly. Jackpot and 4 matches are pari-mutuel; the other tiers are fixed: 3 + bonus $50, 3 matches $20, 2 + bonus $20, 1 + bonus $7, bonus only $5.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 1,832,600 | 3.1 % |
| 2 | 1 in 916,300 | 6.1 % |
| 5 | 1 in 366,520 | 14.5 % |
| 10 | 1 in 183,260 | 26.9 % |
| 20 | 1 in 91,630 | 46.6 % |
| 50 | 1 in 36,652 | 79.2 % |
| 100 | 1 in 18,326 | 95.7 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,832,600 | 17,621.2 |
| 2 | 53,900 | 518.3 |
| 3 | 14,779 | 142.1 |
| 4 | 435 | 4.2 |
| 5 | 657 | 6.3 |
| 6 | 102 | 1.0 |
| 7 | 58 | 0.6 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 1,832,600 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 21 times in a row when tossing a coin.