Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 45,057,474 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

2621 draws · 12.09.2001 – 24.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-59 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 59 on a circle where 59 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 56, 58, 59 is then no longer spread over 58 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 44.0, expected 43.9

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.4
11–15 5 / 5.0
16–20 20 / 23.2
21–25 60 / 65.7
26–30 136 / 140.5
31–35 243 / 248.0
36–40 386 / 376.7
41–45 502 / 498.6
46–50 573 / 564.5
51–55 495 / 499.5
56–59 201 / 198.8

Circular span

Mean: observed 36.8, expected 36.7

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.4
11–15 7 / 6.4
16–20 29 / 33.0
21–25 108 / 106.0
26–30 266 / 261.7
31–35 508 / 545.3
36–40 894 / 890.2
41–45 748 / 711.5
46–50 61 / 66.5

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.06% for a random draw. We therefore expected 1.6 such draws; there were 1.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
20.11.202434525357581256
20.07.20241314161922251313
12.02.20253031323941431414
28.05.2011237912571556
31.08.20224245474952561515
12.04.20232324253436371515
10.01.20243941424447531515
24.12.2016448515254571654
30.11.20111011151723261717
03.05.20174041515253561717
04.06.20252934364143451717
09.05.20261013141922261717

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 59, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.616, expected 0.610

Observed Expected
0 1325 / 1,334.9
1 1007 / 1,001.2
2 257 / 255.4
3 31 / 27.2
4–6 0 / 1.2

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.080
Observed
1.066
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 59 numbers in six rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

2621 draws · Expected: 266.5 / Number · min 226, max 312

12642273325942705255624272508300925110268
11268122571327114251152931628117269182541927820262
21266222652326824259252772623927295282632925630285
31312322563322634268352703627337266382613925040276
41277422584327344271452524625747235482494926850287
512545228153306542835529056245572935825159249

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 10.2 / Number · min 3, max 16

1112123104105461378814971010
1111127131314141516168171218131910207
21102216231124112532692712281229103011
311632103353414351136113711381639114011
4112427438441245846114764874911508
5175285310541055135610579587595

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 59 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/59 ≈ 10.2% per draw: mean 9.8, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

15667 gaps measured · Mean: observed 9.80, expected 9.83

Observed Expected
1 1614 / 1,593.3
2 1418 / 1,431.2
3–4 2398 / 2,440.6
5–7 2825 / 2,806.7
8–10 2069 / 2,034.5
11–15 2250 / 2,225.0
16–20 1271 / 1,301.5
21–30 1201 / 1,206.6
31–40 410 / 412.9
41+ 211 / 214.8

The longest absence in the data is 84 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.01%; with 59 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 30 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 45,057,474 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

▲