Lottochaos ☆My tickets

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 324,632 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

2534 draws · 21.09.2018 – 24.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 5-from-35 draws

How close together are the five numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 35 on a circle where 35 touches 1: the draw 4, 5, 7, 33, 35 is then no longer spread over 32 positions but concentrated on 10. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 25.0, expected 25.0

Observed Expected
5–9 13 / 15.2
10–14 113 / 117.6
15–19 338 / 340.1
20–24 614 / 619.2
25–29 795 / 793.8
30–34 618 / 605.5
35–35 43 / 42.6

Circular span

Mean: observed 20.7, expected 20.7

Observed Expected
5–9 19 / 19.1
10–14 159 / 176.2
15–19 640 / 640.7
20–24 1357 / 1,312.7
25–29 359 / 385.3

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 10 has a probability of 1.36% for a random draw. We therefore expected 34.4 such draws; there were 34.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
22.01.2020131416171866
27.05.2025252627283066
06.03.2021192021232577
22.12.2022141617182077
16.03.2023141517182077
16.11.2024232425262977
03.01.20201347888
09.03.20211363435835
05.07.2021232728293088
30.08.2019128293234934
26.11.20191273435935
18.05.2022202126272899

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its five numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 5 drawn from 35, of which 5 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.707, expected 0.714

Observed Expected
0 1133 / 1,111.9
1 1058 / 1,069.2
2 295 / 316.8
3 45 / 33.9
4–5 2 / 1.2

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.182
Observed
1.180
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 35 numbers in five rows of seven. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

2534 draws · Expected: 362.0 / Number · min 315, max 390

1355233533644378535863677378
835793781038711357123441337414359
15342163681735318368193732037721341
22355233832438125353263612731528348
29364303903135532363333343438735368

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 14.3 / Number · min 8, max 21

110214318412518612716
81691410171115121413171413
151616131716181219820202112
2215231624122511261327142821
29153016311432933934193513

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 35 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 5/35 ≈ 14.3% per draw: mean 7.0, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

12635 gaps measured · Mean: observed 6.98, expected 7.00

Observed Expected
1 1791 / 1,805.0
2 1527 / 1,547.1
3–4 2547 / 2,462.8
5–7 2474 / 2,525.2
8–10 1569 / 1,590.2
11–15 1459 / 1,453.3
16–20 690 / 672.4
21–30 453 / 455.0
31–40 107 / 97.4
41+ 18 / 26.5

The longest absence in the data is 70 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.00%; with 35 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 30 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter five numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 324,632 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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