Lottochaos ☆Le mie giocate

Analisi: osservato contro atteso

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 3,838,380 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

310 estrazioni · 06/11/2023 – 22/10/2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-40 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 40 on a circle where 40 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 37, 39, 40 is then no longer spread over 39 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Ampiezza lineare

Media: osservato 30,1, atteso 30,3

Osservato Atteso
6–10 0 / 0,3
11–15 3 / 4,1
16–20 19 / 17,5
21–25 46 / 43,9
26–30 79 / 78,1
31–35 99 / 99,6
36–40 64 / 66,5

Ampiezza circolare

Media: osservato 25,7, atteso 25,4

Osservato Atteso
6–10 0 / 0,4
11–15 4 / 6,1
16–20 27 / 31,1
21–25 96 / 98,7
26–30 166 / 154,8
31–34 17 / 18,9

Le estrazioni più compatte

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0,48% for a random draw. We therefore expected 1,5 such draws; there were 2.

DataNumeri vincenticircolarelineare
13/06/20241719212223271111
18/08/2025131333536401140
12/02/2024346910161414
20/08/20261920242830331515
04/08/202528131415171616
16/05/202489141823241717
29/05/20251618192122321717
16/10/20251461034381738
25/12/202589111337391732
13/03/20251316182429301818
21/04/2025427333438391836
24/07/2025125615381838

Cosa si ripete dall'estrazione precedente?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 40, of which 6 are marked.

Ripetizioni esatte

Media: osservato 0,964, atteso 0,900

Osservato Atteso
0 104 / 108,3
1 124 / 134,4
2 69 / 56,0
3 12 / 9,6
4–6 0 / 0,7

Vicini dell'estrazione precedente

Numero medio di numeri vincenti che sono vicini diretti (±1, in modo circolare) di un numero dell'estrazione precedente, senza esservi stati estratti.

1,408
Osservato
1,497
Atteso

L'ultima estrazione non contiene alcuna informazione sulla successiva. Rigiocare gli ultimi numeri o i loro vicini dà esattamente le stesse probabilità di qualsiasi altra combinazione.

La schedina come mappa di calore

The 40 numbers in four rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

Da sempre

310 estrazioni · Atteso: 46,5 / Numero · min 32, max 59

1422433564545386447458549451043
1142124213431446155316411745184819562045
2159225823582457254026432745284729373055
3140324533493444354036323754385039394043

Ultime 100 estrazioni

100 estrazioni · Atteso: 15,0 / Numero · min 9, max 21

1142113184205106177158179161014
111312181316141515131691718181519172019
211822212317242025926112716281629123020
311032143314341835936113717381739134012

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 40 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

Quanto resta assente un numero?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/40 ≈ 15.0% per draw: mean 6.7, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

1820 intervalli misurati · Media: osservato 6,56, atteso 6,67

Osservato Atteso
1 298 / 273,0
2 238 / 232,1
3–4 369 / 364,9
5–7 354 / 366,6
8–10 205 / 225,1
11–15 209 / 199,3
16–20 82 / 88,4
21–30 47 / 56,7
31–40 13 / 11,2
41+ 5 / 2,7

The longest absence in the data is 49 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0,04%; with 40 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 30 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

La mia combinazione

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 3,838,380 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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