Lottochaos ☆Le mie giocate

Analisi: osservato contro atteso

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 13,983,816 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

1406 estrazioni · 04/05/2013 – 21/10/2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-49 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 49 on a circle where 49 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 46, 48, 49 is then no longer spread over 48 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Ampiezza lineare

Media: osservato 37,1, atteso 36,7

Osservato Atteso
6–10 1 / 0,5
11–15 5 / 6,8
16–20 23 / 30,5
21–25 71 / 82,6
26–30 154 / 166,2
31–35 282 / 268,3
36–40 356 / 352,1
41–45 360 / 348,8
46–49 154 / 150,3

Ampiezza circolare

Media: osservato 31,0, atteso 30,7

Osservato Atteso
6–10 1 / 0,6
11–15 8 / 9,2
16–20 42 / 47,4
21–25 132 / 152,1
26–30 366 / 372,6
31–35 625 / 598,1
36–40 232 / 225,8
41–41 0 / 0,2

Le estrazioni più compatte

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0,16% for a random draw. We therefore expected 2,3 such draws; there were 4.

DataNumeri vincenticircolarelineare
04/02/202329313334353799
14/12/20163334384243441212
02/03/20193841424648491212
16/07/20221517202223261212
25/10/20142223283031351414
13/06/20183461046481446
16/05/20203681147481446
03/07/2019237394245481547
01/01/20221013141516241515
17/02/20162426323538391616
09/04/201614383946471647
14/06/20172930323336441616

Cosa si ripete dall'estrazione precedente?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 49, of which 6 are marked.

Ripetizioni esatte

Media: osservato 0,726, atteso 0,735

Osservato Atteso
0 616 / 612,5
1 587 / 580,3
2 174 / 186,0
3 27 / 24,8
4–6 1 / 1,4

Vicini dell'estrazione precedente

Numero medio di numeri vincenti che sono vicini diretti (±1, in modo circolare) di un numero dell'estrazione precedente, senza esservi stati estratti.

1,265
Osservato
1,251
Atteso

L'ultima estrazione non contiene alcuna informazione sulla successiva. Rigiocare gli ultimi numeri o i loro vicini dà esattamente le stesse probabilità di qualsiasi altra combinazione.

La schedina come mappa di calore

The 49 numbers as on the play slip (seven rows of seven). The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

Da sempre

1406 estrazioni · Atteso: 172,2 / Numero · min 143, max 200

1186216531864171518261987185
816591721017411187121621317414154
15175161861716118176192002017521147
22177231592416425187261722716228174
29189301883117632162331753414835159
36169371823815939165401634117542174
43169441844514346163471734817449170

Ultime 100 estrazioni

100 estrazioni · Atteso: 12,2 / Numero · min 7, max 22

18210314410511616717
811911101111141291315148
15191614178181019142022218
2210231124132514261327112818
29133013318321833133473511
36103721388392140941104211
4310441545746947948134914

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 49 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

Quanto resta assente un numero?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/49 ≈ 12.2% per draw: mean 8.2, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

8387 intervalli misurati · Media: osservato 8,12, atteso 8,17

Osservato Atteso
1 1020 / 1.027,0
2 882 / 901,2
3–4 1510 / 1.484,9
5–7 1647 / 1.612,5
8–10 1104 / 1.089,8
11–15 1072 / 1.089,4
16–20 530 / 567,0
21–30 453 / 448,6
31–40 123 / 121,5
41+ 46 / 45,1

The longest absence in the data is 85 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0,00%; with 49 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 29 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

La mia combinazione

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 13,983,816 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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