Lottochaos ☆Le mie giocate

Analisi: osservato contro atteso

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 13,983,816 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

1234 estrazioni · 09/10/2014 – 22/10/2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-49 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 49 on a circle where 49 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 46, 48, 49 is then no longer spread over 48 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Ampiezza lineare

Media: osservato 37,0, atteso 36,7

Osservato Atteso
6–10 0 / 0,5
11–15 8 / 6,0
16–20 22 / 26,7
21–25 63 / 72,5
26–30 159 / 145,9
31–35 218 / 235,5
36–40 293 / 309,0
41–45 333 / 306,1
46–49 138 / 131,9

Ampiezza circolare

Media: osservato 30,7, atteso 30,7

Osservato Atteso
6–10 0 / 0,5
11–15 10 / 8,1
16–20 39 / 41,6
21–25 125 / 133,5
26–30 358 / 327,0
31–35 517 / 524,9
36–40 184 / 198,2
41–41 1 / 0,2

Le estrazioni più compatte

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0,16% for a random draw. We therefore expected 2,0 such draws; there were 3.

DataNumeri vincenticircolarelineare
13/07/20153133343537421212
17/09/20181621222425271212
15/01/20242425262830351212
18/07/2024810111214201313
23/12/20243440424445461313
02/05/2016678914191414
16/08/20182223253233361515
22/08/20242584345481547
01/09/20253481314171515
09/04/2026126944481548
19/01/20152124253133361616
16/04/20181422252728291616

Cosa si ripete dall'estrazione precedente?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 49, of which 6 are marked.

Ripetizioni esatte

Media: osservato 0,762, atteso 0,735

Osservato Atteso
0 515 / 537,5
1 529 / 509,3
2 161 / 163,2
3 24 / 21,8
4–6 4 / 1,2

Vicini dell'estrazione precedente

Numero medio di numeri vincenti che sono vicini diretti (±1, in modo circolare) di un numero dell'estrazione precedente, senza esservi stati estratti.

1,286
Osservato
1,254
Atteso

L'ultima estrazione non contiene alcuna informazione sulla successiva. Rigiocare gli ultimi numeri o i loro vicini dà esattamente le stesse probabilità di qualsiasi altra combinazione.

La schedina come mappa di calore

The 49 numbers in seven rows of seven. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

Da sempre

1234 estrazioni · Atteso: 151,1 / Numero · min 120, max 177

1158215431484153515761507148
816291541015511149121611314414141
15177161441714618142191462014821144
22166231502415425140261452714928163
29136301603115232160331343415135161
36156371553814639149401724113742132
43150441594512046166471414815649163

Ultime 100 estrazioni

100 estrazioni · Atteso: 12,2 / Numero · min 5, max 19

17210313414511616714
8169121081119121113121410
15121613171018131992010219
2218231524122514261227142811
298301731103213331734123517
3613371238839174094194210
431544114554615471148134913

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 49 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

Quanto resta assente un numero?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/49 ≈ 12.2% per draw: mean 8.2, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

7355 intervalli misurati · Media: osservato 8,13, atteso 8,17

Osservato Atteso
1 939 / 900,6
2 788 / 790,3
3–4 1309 / 1.302,2
5–7 1386 / 1.414,1
8–10 939 / 955,7
11–15 961 / 955,3
16–20 513 / 497,2
21–30 367 / 393,4
31–40 113 / 106,6
41+ 40 / 39,6

The longest absence in the data is 84 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0,00%; with 49 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 39 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

La mia combinazione

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 13,983,816 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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