Analisi: osservato contro atteso

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 13,983,816 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

4461 estrazioni · 12/06/1982 – 21/10/2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-49 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 49 on a circle where 49 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 46, 48, 49 is then no longer spread over 48 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Ampiezza lineare

Media: osservato 36,7, atteso 36,7

Osservato Atteso

6–10 2 / 1,6

11–15 18 / 21,7

16–20 97 / 96,6

21–25 274 / 262,0

26–30 539 / 527,3

31–35 836 / 851,3

36–40 1060 / 1.117,0

41–45 1180 / 1.106,6

46–49 455 / 476,8

Ampiezza circolare

Media: osservato 30,7, atteso 30,7

Osservato Atteso

6–10 3 / 2,0

11–15 30 / 29,3

16–20 153 / 150,5

21–25 503 / 482,6

26–30 1182 / 1.182,1

31–35 1878 / 1.897,5

36–40 711 / 716,3

41–41 1 / 0,7

Le estrazioni più compatte

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0,16% for a random draw. We therefore expected 7,2 such draws; there were 6.

Data	Numeri vincenti	circolare	lineare
13/05/2026	14243444648	9	48
26/12/1992	111316171920	10	10
21/10/2000	384344454647	10	10
04/09/2004	245444647	11	46
19/08/1998	14894748	12	48
18/05/2011	13942454849	12	49
29/10/1983	15781113	13	13
26/05/1984	1340434546	13	46
12/11/2003	3441444548	13	46
04/06/2005	111618192123	13	13
20/12/2008	478104748	13	45
04/10/2023	181926272930	13	13

Cosa si ripete dall'estrazione precedente?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 49, of which 6 are marked.

Ripetizioni esatte

Media: osservato 0,734, atteso 0,735

Osservato Atteso

0 1949 / 1.944,4

1 1831 / 1.842,1

2 597 / 590,4

3 82 / 78,7

4–6 1 / 4,4

Vicini dell'estrazione precedente

Numero medio di numeri vincenti che sono vicini diretti (±1, in modo circolare) di un numero dell'estrazione precedente, senza esservi stati estratti.

1,262

Osservato

1,246

Atteso

L'ultima estrazione non contiene alcuna informazione sulla successiva. Rigiocare gli ultimi numeri o i loro vicini dà esattamente le stesse probabilità di qualsiasi altra combinazione.

La schedina come mappa di calore

The 49 numbers in seven rows of seven. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

Da sempre

4461 estrazioni · Atteso: 546,2 / Numero · min 498, max 605

1507	2528	3551	4557	5524	6521	7564
8538	9565	10548	11525	12537	13526	14498
15531	16523	17536	18520	19538	20566	21555
22539	23567	24524	25524	26540	27568	28520
29535	30535	31586	32535	33543	34591	35542
36556	37550	38567	39538	40580	41562	42551
43567	44547	45605	46575	47557	48544	49560

Ultime 100 estrazioni

100 estrazioni · Atteso: 12,2 / Numero · min 5, max 21

113	28	313	411	514	612	76
810	921	1013	1112	129	1314	1415
1516	1612	1710	189	198	2012	2112
229	2313	2410	2513	269	2713	2819
2913	3015	315	328	3317	3411	3511
3612	3716	3810	3913	408	4114	4216
4310	4414	4519	4614	4712	4812	4914

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 49 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

Quanto resta assente un numero?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/49 ≈ 12.2% per draw: mean 8.2, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

26717 intervalli misurati · Media: osservato 8,15, atteso 8,17

Osservato Atteso

1 3275 / 3.271,5

2 2921 / 2.870,9

3–4 4744 / 4.730,2

5–7 5088 / 5.136,8

8–10 3495 / 3.471,4

11–15 3432 / 3.470,3

16–20 1760 / 1.806,0

21–30 1478 / 1.429,1

31–40 386 / 387,1

41+ 138 / 143,8

The longest absence in the data is 80 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0,00%; with 49 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 38 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

La mia combinazione

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 13,983,816 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.