Lottochaos

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 3,838,380 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

307 draws · 06.11.2023 – 12.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-40 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 40 on a circle where 40 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 37, 39, 40 is then no longer spread over 39 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 30.1, expected 30.3

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.3
11–15 3 / 4.1
16–20 19 / 17.3
21–25 45 / 43.5
26–30 78 / 77.3
31–35 99 / 98.6
36–40 63 / 65.9

Circular span

Mean: observed 25.7, expected 25.4

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.4
11–15 4 / 6.0
16–20 27 / 30.8
21–25 95 / 97.8
26–30 164 / 153.3
31–34 17 / 18.7

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.48% for a random draw. We therefore expected 1.5 such draws; there were 2.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
13.06.20241719212223271111
18.08.2025131333536401140
12.02.2024346910161414
20.08.20261920242830331515
04.08.202528131415171616
16.05.202489141823241717
29.05.20251618192122321717
16.10.20251461034381738
25.12.202589111337391732
13.03.20251316182429301818
21.04.2025427333438391836
24.07.2025125615381838

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 40, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.967, expected 0.900

Observed Expected
0 102 / 107.2
1 124 / 133.1
2 68 / 55.5
3 12 / 9.5
4–6 0 / 0.7

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.408
Observed
1.496
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 40 numbers in four rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

307 draws · Expected: 46.0 / Number · min 32, max 59

1412423564535386437448549451042
1142124213421445155216411745184819552045
2159225823572457253926422744284729373054
3139324533493443354036323754385039384043

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 15.0 / Number · min 8, max 22

1132113184195106167148179171014
111412191316141515131691718181619162020
211922222316242025826112715281629123019
311032143316341835936113717381739134012

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 40 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/40 ≈ 15.0% per draw: mean 6.7, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

1802 gaps measured · Mean: observed 6.54, expected 6.67

Observed Expected
1 296 / 270.3
2 237 / 229.8
3–4 366 / 361.3
5–7 351 / 363.0
8–10 201 / 222.9
11–15 208 / 197.4
16–20 80 / 87.6
21–30 45 / 56.1
31–40 13 / 11.0
41+ 5 / 2.7

The longest absence in the data is 49 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.04%; with 40 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 27 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 3,838,380 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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