Lottochaos

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 13,983,816 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

1231 draws · 09.10.2014 – 12.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-49 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 49 on a circle where 49 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 46, 48, 49 is then no longer spread over 48 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 37.0, expected 36.7

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.5
11–15 8 / 6.0
16–20 22 / 26.7
21–25 63 / 72.3
26–30 158 / 145.5
31–35 218 / 234.9
36–40 291 / 308.2
41–45 333 / 305.4
46–49 138 / 131.6

Circular span

Mean: observed 30.7, expected 30.7

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.5
11–15 10 / 8.1
16–20 39 / 41.5
21–25 125 / 133.2
26–30 357 / 326.2
31–35 516 / 523.6
36–40 183 / 197.7
41–41 1 / 0.2

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.16% for a random draw. We therefore expected 2.0 such draws; there were 3.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
13.07.20153133343537421212
17.09.20181621222425271212
15.01.20242425262830351212
18.07.2024810111214201313
23.12.20243440424445461313
02.05.2016678914191414
16.08.20182223253233361515
22.08.20242584345481547
01.09.20253481314171515
09.04.2026126944481548
19.01.20152124253133361616
16.04.20181422252728291616

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 49, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.763, expected 0.735

Observed Expected
0 512 / 536.2
1 529 / 508.0
2 161 / 162.8
3 24 / 21.7
4–6 4 / 1.2

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.287
Observed
1.254
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 49 numbers in seven rows of seven. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

1231 draws · Expected: 150.7 / Number · min 119, max 176

1158215331484153515761507148
816291531015511148121601314414141
15176161441714518142191452014721144
22166231502415425139261452714828163
29135301593115232160331343415035161
36156371553814639149401724113642131
43149441594511946166471404815649163

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 12.2 / Number · min 5, max 19

1829314414512616714
8169111091118121013121410
1511161317918131992010219
2219231524132513261227132811
298301631113214331734133517
361337123893918409418429
431544124554615471048134913

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 49 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/49 ≈ 12.2% per draw: mean 8.2, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

7337 gaps measured · Mean: observed 8.11, expected 8.17

Observed Expected
1 939 / 898.4
2 786 / 788.4
3–4 1306 / 1,299.0
5–7 1381 / 1,410.7
8–10 935 / 953.3
11–15 960 / 953.0
16–20 513 / 496.0
21–30 367 / 392.5
31–40 111 / 106.3
41+ 39 / 39.5

The longest absence in the data is 84 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.00%; with 49 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 65 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 13,983,816 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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