Lottochaos

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 13,983,816 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

4458 draws · 12.06.1982 – 10.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-49 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 49 on a circle where 49 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 46, 48, 49 is then no longer spread over 48 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 36.7, expected 36.7

Observed Expected
6–10 2 / 1.6
11–15 18 / 21.7
16–20 97 / 96.6
21–25 274 / 261.8
26–30 539 / 526.9
31–35 835 / 850.7
36–40 1059 / 1,116.3
41–45 1179 / 1,105.9
46–49 455 / 476.5

Circular span

Mean: observed 30.7, expected 30.7

Observed Expected
6–10 3 / 2.0
11–15 30 / 29.3
16–20 153 / 150.4
21–25 503 / 482.3
26–30 1181 / 1,181.3
31–35 1877 / 1,896.3
36–40 710 / 715.9
41–41 1 / 0.7

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.16% for a random draw. We therefore expected 7.2 such draws; there were 6.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
13.05.202614243444648948
26.12.19921113161719201010
21.10.20003843444546471010
04.09.20042454446471146
19.08.1998148947481248
18.05.2011139424548491249
29.10.1983157811131313
26.05.198413404345461346
12.11.200334414445481346
04.06.20051116181921231313
20.12.20084781047481345
04.10.20231819262729301313

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 49, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.733, expected 0.735

Observed Expected
0 1949 / 1,943.1
1 1830 / 1,840.8
2 596 / 590.0
3 81 / 78.7
4–6 1 / 4.4

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.262
Observed
1.246
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 49 numbers in seven rows of seven. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

4458 draws · Expected: 545.9 / Number · min 498, max 605

1506252835514557552265217564
853895651054711525125371352614498
15531165231753618519195382056621555
22537235662452425523265382756728520
29533305353158632535335423459135542
36556375483856739538405804156242551
43567445474560546574475574854449560

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 12.2 / Number · min 5, max 21

1122931341151361276
8109211013111212913141415
15161613171118819820122113
22823122410251226727142820
29113016315328331734123513
361237143810391340841144216
4310441545204614471248124914

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 49 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/49 ≈ 12.2% per draw: mean 8.2, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

26699 gaps measured · Mean: observed 8.15, expected 8.17

Observed Expected
1 3269 / 3,269.3
2 2920 / 2,868.9
3–4 4740 / 4,727.0
5–7 5086 / 5,133.3
8–10 3493 / 3,469.1
11–15 3431 / 3,467.9
16–20 1760 / 1,804.8
21–30 1476 / 1,428.1
31–40 386 / 386.8
41+ 138 / 143.7

The longest absence in the data is 80 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.00%; with 49 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 35 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 13,983,816 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

▲